Final 2024 MLB Mock Draft: Unsettled at the top as Cleveland keeps pick choice quiet (2024)

The Athletic has live coverage of the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft.

This is my final mock draft for the 2024 MLB Draft. It is a projection of the top-30 picks for tonight’s first round — that is, a prediction, not who I would take, but who I think each of the 30 teams will take based on the best information I could gather from industry sources and my own intuition on how certain scouting directors and general managers approach the first round.

I’ll note yet again that if a player isn’t listed here, that doesn’t mean he won’t be drafted high or paid first-round money. Once we get to pick 31, I think we’ll see a lot of high school players, especially pitchers, drafted with teams’ second and third selections, eventually signing for bonuses that are in line with the mid- to late-first round. It’s no shade on a player to slide out of the first round as long as the number on the check is large enough.

You can also read my scouting capsules on the top 100 prospects in the draft, and capsules on another 25+ prospects who didn’t make the cut, if you want more details on any of the players I mentioned below. Tonight as the selections are made,check out our live blog for pick-by-pick analysis of the first round and more.

(Note: Scouting grades are on a 20-80 scale)

1. Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State

As of Friday evening, the Guardians still hadn’t made a decision on this pick, and the teams behind them don’t expect to hear until pretty close to cuttin’ time. As far as I can tell, it’s Bazzana, Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt (who, in theory, would take a steeper discount), and perhaps one other name — I think Jac Caglianone, but I’m less certain of that.

2. Cincinnati Reds: Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia

I believe the Reds would take Condon if he’s there. If not, it would be Bazzana, Caglianone or Chase Burns.

3. Colorado Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

Here’s where it gets a little more interesting, as the Rockies were presumed to be heaviest on Caglianone, but that seems to have cooled in the last week (not their interest, but the presumption). I assume they’d just take Bazzana if he got here.

4. Oakland A’s: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M

This rumor has picked up a lot of steam in the last 48 hours, for whatever that’s worth. (I traffic in rumors this time of year, but often wonder if they’re worth the electrons expended to pass them around.) They seem to have backed off of Nick Kurtz, and may be a dark horse on Wetherholt. All three of these players have some kind of injury concern, although Montgomery’s (ankle) appears to be the least concerning.

5. Chicago White Sox: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida

The White Sox appear to be swinging for the fences, as the two names most linked to them remain Caglianone and Konnor Griffin, two high-risk, high-upside bats.

6. Kansas City Royals: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

I think this would be Smith or Bryce Rainer — yes, they would take a shortstop even with Bobby Witt Jr. in the fold, you take the best player available in baseball, always and forever — but not Caglianone or Wetherholt.

7. St. Louis Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia

I know the Cardinals thought Wetherholt was a pipe dream to start the year, but his hamstring injuries have made this a real possibility. If he’s gone, they could go with Smith or Rainer. I don’t see them taking Caglianone or Griffin.

8. Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee

A new rumor has the Angels taking Moore and signing him for a significant discount. Even before the Moore connection popped up, they’d still been linked to only college players, notably East Carolina right-hander Trey Yesavage, Florida State outfielder James Tibbs III and Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.)

The Pirates were linked to college players all spring, but in the last few days teams behind them have started to think that the Bucs might go prep, with Griffin or Rainer. Griffin would be an interesting fit for their system, as the Pirates have a long history of taking guys who make a lot of contact but fail to develop power, while Griffin has huge power and needs help with contact.

10. Washington Nationals: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake (Studio City, Calif.)

The Nats picked up an extra draft pick and an extra $2.395 million in pool money in Saturday’s trade with Kansas City, which may open up some new possibilities for them with this pick — or just allow them to grab another first-round talent at pick 39 by going a little under slot at 44. I’ve heard they’re on pretty much every player you could imagine at this pick. The top nine are unsettled enough that they could end up with any of at least seven guys I think they’d happily select.

11. Detroit Tigers: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

Kurtz’s slide seems real — at least, teams in this range in the draft think he’s approaching them now, and I imagine he stops in the 11-14 range. Teams around Detroit think they’ll go college after passing on Wyatt Langford last year, although scouting director Mark Conner has historically preferred prep guys with the first pick. If they go the latter route, they might be high school lefty Cam Caminiti’s ceiling, although I heard on Saturday he might have a chance to get into the top 10. (Nationals?)

12. Boston Red Sox: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

I’d heard a few weeks ago this was one of Boston’s ideal scenarios, and if the Angels go another route, it becomes much more likely that Yesavage gets here, although he’d have to get past the Nats, who are also candidates to take him (which pushes someone else down). If Yesavage is gone, the Red Sox may go with Jurrangelo Cijntje. I’ve heard Boston previously linked with Christian Moore and Ryan Waldschmidt.

13. San Francisco Giants: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (Scottsdale, Ariz.)

Caminiti to the Giants has been the rumor since … March? Forever ago, certainly. Maybe they go another direction if someone surprises them by getting here, but I do think they’re his most likely suitor. If they go college, the player will likely come from the same group that the Red Sox (pick 12) and Cubs (14) choose from.

14. Chicago Cubs: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State

I think the Cubs would take Christian Moore if he’s here, and they are still a strong candidate to take Malcolm Moore (no relation, I already made that joke, move along), although that would have to be a big discount since Malcolm Moore doesn’t seem to have other interest until the late 20s.

15. Seattle Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje, BHP, Mississippi State

I keep hearing the Mariners on pitching, assuming the right guy is here, which is probably Yesavage or Cijntje. Otherwise, it’s likely one of the safer college bats like Waldschmidt. I don’t think they’d take a high school pitcher just for the sake of taking a pitcher, though.

16. Miami Marlins: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest

I’ve heard the Marlins mostly with college bats, including King, Cam Smith and Tibbs, although supposedly they have at least one high school hitter in their mix (maybe Theo Gillen).

17. Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky

I’ve only heard the Brewers connected to college bats lately — the usual suspects, Waldschmidt, Smith, Tibbs, King, etc. — but I think that’s because the high school bats in this range would be reaches, not because they’re opposed to taking a high schooler.

18. Tampa Bay Rays: Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS (Austin, Texas)

I keep hearing the Rays on high school bats, although I don’t believe that precludes them from taking a college guy — Carson Benge seems like a natural fit here. I mentioned the other day that I think they’re the high team on Tyler Bell, another prep shortstop, but maybe more likely if he gets to pick 58.

19. New York Mets: Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State

I’m sorry to keep putting the same name here, but this is who other teams seem to think the Mets are taking. I’ve heard them with some other college bats, but no pitchers.

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

I said last time I think the Jays are Brecht’s best-case scenario, and they go this route if that group of second-tier college bats is gone by this pick. I’m assuming here they’d take Brecht over LSU third baseman Tommy White, with whom I’d heard them linked a few weeks back.

21. Minnesota Twins: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State

So I am still betting the Twins play it a little conservatively and go for a college bat … but one rumor I heard on Saturday has them going after high school right-hander William Schmidt, who is committed to LSU and won’t come cheaply, but offers one of the best curveballs in the entire draft. It would be quite a departure for the Twins, who’ve taken a high school pitcher with their first pick just once in the last 10 drafts, and they traded that guy (Chase Petty) less than a year after taking him.

22. Baltimore Orioles: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (Wauchula, Fla.)

The Orioles are also Vance Honeycutt’s best shot at being a first-round pick, although they pick again at 32 and might be able to get him there after he struck out 83 times this spring for UNC. Lindsey is the only prep hitter I’ve heard linked to the Orioles. The other names are all college bats, but most of those guys, other than Tommy White, will be gone by this pick.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS (Baton Rouge, La.)

The Dodgers are the only team in the first round whom I’ve heard are likely to take a high school pitcher — which makes some sense, as they can stomach the risk associated with that class more than just about any team, and they may view it as an opportunity to zig when the rest of the industry zags. That could include Schmidt, Ryan Sloan or Braylon Doughty. I’ve heard the rumors of them taking Honeycutt aren’t real.

24. Atlanta: Carter Johnson, SS, Oxford (Ala.) HS

I’ve heard Atlanta mostly with high school prospects, with pitchers including Doughty, Schmidt and Dax Whitney; plus hitters including Johnson, Lindsey, and two northern Virginia kids, Griffin Burkholder and James Nunnallee. I’m just spitballing but I wonder if they’d be on Wyatt Sanford here. If they were to go college, they might be a landing spot for Brecht or Honeycutt, guys who have some significant flaw but bigger upside.

25. San Diego Padres: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State

I would still bet on the Padres going high school over college, but I think they’re a little less likely to go high school pitching this year than in previous years, and the high school bats who might be available here are a mixed bag. If they do go that route, I could see them targeting Lewis or Wyatt Sanford, or even a toolsier guy like Braylon Payne. If they go college bat, though, look for them to go up the middle.

26. New York Yankees: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS (Elmhurst, Ill.)

I have heard the Yankees on the most motley list of players, including local kid Luke Dickerson, toolsy Mississippi State outfielder Dakota Jordan, high school pitchers Sloan, Schmidt and Doughty, and hard-hitting Tennessee first baseman Blake Burke. If you can find the connection there, you should work for the New York Times’ Games department.

27. Philadelphia Phillies: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Okla.) HS

The Phillies are mostly linked to high school players, as you might expect with their last two first-rounders (Justin Crawford and Aidan Miller) doing extremely well and the one before that (Andrew Painter) a top prospect before he blew out his elbow. I did speculate last time that they might be a suitor for Honeycutt, who has two plus tools and some name value, things that Dave Dombrowski-led teams have historically valued in the draft.

28. Houston Astros: Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS (Omaha, Neb.)

I think the players the Astros originally thought they might get — such as Waldschmidt — will be long gone, and Lewis is one of their newer (and more realistic) targets. I have also heard them with Janek.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS (Jonesboro, Ark.)

I’ve heard the Diamondbacks with Caldwell for months, and a lot with Virginia shortstop Griff O’Ferrall, but they pick again at 31 and 35, so they could easily play the board and try to get those guys with subsequent picks.

30. Texas Rangers: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford

I’ve heard them with Moore a bunch, and that they really want Gillen, but that they’re not taking a high school pitcher here at all.

Additional MLB Draft content

(Photo illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; From left to right: Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, JJ Wetherholt (Rogelio V. Solis, Richey Miller / Cal Sport Media, Mike Janes / Four Seam Images / Associated Press)